The minimal, in neocon/globalists/deep state minds, but maximal in reality, partition of Ukraine under redrawn spheres of influence borders is taking place under a military hand.
As I mentioned a few times, the west of Ukraine (ending where the Russian troops will care to stop) and Moldova without Transnistria need to be secured for the West. The theoretical ‘free’ Ukrainian state, presumably left standing after the fighting finishes, is not a viable construct under any imaginable circumstances.
Western hubris begins to cool down. Hopefully. Bringing them down from over optimistic expectations, military specialists’ have probably awaken a minimal grasp on reality in the minds of the loonies (debatable, I know).
Let’s assume it is so. While Russian conquest is unstoppable, reining in the banderites and integrating a possible hostile Ukrainian population under a Polish NATO/EU ‘extension’ is not an easy task. Romanian NATO/EU ‘extension’ over Moldova theoretically should be an easier move, but there are no certainties, the Russian influence, including that of their secret services with their many assets, is a fact.
The green light looks like being solely and entirely stemming from a US (based in US) decision. The EUrocrats don’t matter, they play an outdated tune, bathe in the good old days memories of ‘soft power’ and useless claptrap, while the reshaping of what’s left of the ‘no-mans-land’ between West and Russia became a military waltz with preset legalistic formal decisions which can be, are and will be adopted with expedience.
In this light, the constant erosion of Ukraine’s manpower and morale helps not only to extract a higher cost from Russia, but also to exhaust a possible Ukrainian reaction once the dismantlement of their state becomes obvious.
I expect a sketched agreement between the US and Russia’s militaries is already in place, as I also expect there are forces opposing what I’ve described here. The hard facts reality will eventually settle in, meanwhile the foundations for this military style conceived and managed delimitation of spheres of influence are laid down.
The military forces aren’t needed to confront the ‘enemy’ – it would be a foolish endeavor. They are needed to control the reconfigured map until a proper integration can take place, which is an unavoidable lengthier process.
Obviously, the terminally incompetent EU centered bureaucracy, especially at its higher levels, would have been entirely unable to perform a task far beyond its capabilities and also in direct opposition with their ideological motivated MO.
Russia’s acquiescence (at least) is necessary, probably more than acquiescence at some point. Despite of the risks, some proactive moves coming from the Westerners need to surface or the mockery of useless ‘help’ provided to Ukraine, without any clear goal in sight except the illusory bleeding out of Russia, will come back and haunt them.
The logical final goal, presented as a de facto reality one has to live with, would seek a quasi normalization of relations with Russia, over the lingering shadows of what once was an Ukrainian state and a useless, but necessary for hubris infected minds, war.