I follow assiduously Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Brian Berletic (from the New Atlas), The Duran, of course, many others more or less frequently (IEarlGrey, Gonzalo Lira, AniaK, Redacted, etc) – there’s only a finite time in 24 hours (86400 seconds to make it sound more generous) – plus various many other occasional or random sources. I don’t waste time with MSM, thus, sometimes, I miss certain helpful details, but in today’s infestation with nazi style barked propaganda who cares for that loss?
These being said, I’m always left unsatisfied and mumbling when info about Romania comes around, especially from my favorites.
Being there/here, in Romania, obviously I both resonate differently than a foreigner and I possess a large baggage of inherent information accumulated in time. While being aware someone unattached emotionally and observing from outside can sometimes have a better understanding of the larger picture than someone who is intimately involved, the dissatisfaction I mentioned relates to dissonances I automatically sense, even if they are harder to explain at times.
I’m also aware, unfortunately, about the role major foreign powers reserved for my country, in collusion with the slimy Romanian political class, whom the mentioned powers actively and insistently endeavored to conveniently pick, push and shape in such ways they’d execute their will before defending Romanian national interests. Well, up to a point, securing their own asses matters more.
The surest way to get it wrong is to make predictions about your own person, job, team, family, country. Guesswork (and future is guesswork) seems to fail much more often when it is closer to your skin or your heart.
Nevertheless, watching others guessing about my country when I know they missed underneath interconnections makes me nervous about the validity of their predictions even when I tend to agree with the conclusions. It wouldn’t be a first to have everything (or a lot) wrong and yet get the prediction right. Guesswork thrives on this paradox.
In a way, more like a hobby first, but eventually with enough consistency to consider it a bit more than a hobby, I dabble in the bloody guesswork myself. Oh, how much easier is to observe from afar and how cynical I can get. Not so much so when I feel like I’m at the receiving end.
What triggered the current reaction text was Brian Berletic’s speculation about the possible extension of the war in Ukraine through some NATO countries direct involvement. But, in truth, I was much more stirred some time ago by similar assertions MacGregor and Ritter made, now I just felt it’s time to indirectly answer, offering my perspective, no matter how risky attempt this may be.
The speculation goes that a so called new ‘coalition of the willing’ consisting of Polish and Romanian troops, backed by US troops (Ritter, MacGregor) or not (Berletic) is going to enter Ukraine to establish a sort of buffer zone, if not even to bravely attack the ‘devilish’ Russian forces themselves, ‘Slava Ukraina’ and all that shit, you know. Brian sees them as possible new candidates for the meat grinder, better acquainted with western equipment and as such easier to replenish them more efficiently from the western arsenals of which they could make a better use. Supposedly.
OK, then we are inclined to assume this would be a coordinated move. If it is a coordinated move then a justification has to be given. Can we exclude the pretext of a Russian attack against one of the two NATO countries (Poland or Romania) – false flag or not ? I’d say we can. If such an event would happen then wouldn’t be considered as an attack against NATO ? So why would only one or two other countries be ‘willing’ to respond ? It really makes no sense, no matter how much neocon pseudo-logic propaganda could feed the masses in the two front line countries.
So another reason has to be given. The only one I can imagine is a request for help from Ukraine. On what grounds ? Probably ‘humanitarian’, but it is such a stretch I really don’t want to burn neurons on trying to imagine.
Let’s not forget that Ukraine, while asking for all the military, diplomatic and financial help imaginable, didn’t officially request a NATO direct, ‘boots on the ground’, military involvement. I could open a new speculation based on possible bilateral treaties/agreements existing between Ukraine and Romania or Poland but this would be an even more grotesque stretch of imagination. In any case, officially Russia is not at war with Ukraine, is it ? Messy, messy.
Resuming, I can’t see how a coordinated intervention could be justified.
Let’s then assume it will happen in stages. One obvious hot spot could be Transnistria. Let’s say Romanian forces could be involved alongside (or instead) the (almost non-existing) Rep. of Moldova’s army in reconquering the separatist region and, in the process, clash with some of the few Russian forces there acting as ‘peacekeepers’.
If it happens and if, for some reason, Romania openly admits it sent troops, instead of generating ‘little green men’, as Russia did in Crimea, two possibilities arise: in one scenario any clash with the Russia-proper forces is avoided so Russia has no reason to intervene or, as it would be most probable, clashes occur and Russia considers this an attack. No matter how the west would try to spin it, it really would be an attack on Russian forces so… pause… Romania bought it. We can scratch that, it won’t happen, the security apparatus controlling Romania is anything but suicidal.
We are left with the only plausible scenario – the ‘little green men’ army appearing overnight (sort of speaking) as Moldova’s army and invading Transnistria, clashing with the separatists and Russian forces there. Nope, doesn’t fit either. Before that an ultimatum would be given to the Russian troops, some sort of ‘Minsk accord’ broken, not sure if the OSCE isn’t still involved also, we’d see first some idiotic ‘diplomatic’ ballet happening.
But let’s assume that, for some strange reason, another very cowardly and interested only in self-preservation Moldovan political class starts a war with Russia on Moldova’s territory and drags Romanian troops into, be it as how the Polish troops do it in Ukraine, by switching their badges to Moldovan ones. Then what ? Give Russians a good reason to quicken an advance to Moldova’s border and possibly occupy all of it in the process ?
A Moldova-Russia war doesn’t really open a second front or would be only a minor one, maybe separatist forces could be defeated with Romanian army disguised as Moldova’s, but the western involvement would remain limited to Moldova, Transnistria is not justification enough to spill troops into Ukraine.
We can notice how Russia insists on the SMO narrative, feigning that all the contractors, mercenaries, instructors, special forces, etc, present in Ukraine and coming from the Collective West request no answer from the Russian Federation other than acknowledging their existence. Is the Russian leadership more rational than the West’s ? Probably, but 10 months into the conflict, the West didn’t cross the red line of direct, open involvement either. I don’t think it will on flimsy pretexts which don’t open real possibilities of an all-in involvement as the neocon loonies desire.
The only ‘operational valid’ pretexts for Polish, Romanian (and Hungarian) intervention can occur when the Ukrainian state has collapsed. And would consist in taking back, under ‘protection’, their respective territories, lost in favor of USSR at the end of WW2 and ‘inherited’ by Ukraine after USSR dismantled. Not really helping Ukraine, if you ask me, but shhh…
It is what both MacGregor and Ritter define as smaller states taking advantage of the US giant for their selfish national interests. Oh, shocking ! And I say… good for them. Btw, are there unselfish national interests !?
This would be only a last resort, Western rush for ‘take what you possibly can’, operation, probably with a tacit approval from Russia, too busy to digest the rest of Ukraine.
But we’re not there and it surely beats me why the Russians would dig trenches to stop a Polish-Romanian(!?) offensive in Donbass, Brian ?
We, Romanians, did get close to the Caucasus in WW2, but we somehow kind of got lost on the way back, literally lost, thousands upon thousands, no way you’d find enough crazies today to repeat the adventure amongst the nose-in-the smartphone, militarily untrained, physically out of shape, dwindling youth of today. Petraeus can forget it, his rants are Adolf’s imaginary divisions moving on the map from his last days in bunker.
Also, as I mentioned in a comment I posted on Brian’s channel, there’s no way a Romanian government, no matter how subservient, will commit all the troops (which wouldn’t be enough anyway) and leave the Hungarian border undefended. This will never happen as long there’s still a Romanian state and its military, no matter how pro-Western the officers class, NATO or no NATO, US or no US, EU or no EU.
Final note. Is Russia really so determined to settle the Ukrainian issue once and for all ? The damage is already done, the West got its pint of blood, Ukrainian and Russian, poisoned the relations between the largest two mostly Orthodox, mostly Slavic states. It is not a victory for the West, but surely it isn’t a defeat either. The real suffering is upon Ukrainians and Russians involved while many of the consequences deriving from the war are good for the globalist cabal’s scheming. Sometimes I wonder…