A pile of rubble too far ?
The ‘forced error’ war in Ukraine will keep generating consequences for everyone, for NATO in particular, probably long after it ended, even in an unexpectedly reasonably well repaired geo-political environment where, miraculously, US & co and Russia came to an agreement, somehow then honestly respected by both sides. Wishful thinking, I know, but it helps stressing some points I’m going to present further.
A precondition for the previous statement to make sense would be that NATO will still exist once and after the war in Ukraine ended. (A pre-precondition implies NATO didn’t melt, literally, its usefulness in a final, brusquely concluded, nuclear stand-off with similarly suddenly melted Russia.)
The possibility of a protracted war in Ukraine acting as a catalyst for keeping NATO together, tighter than its internal tensions would normally allow, is not to be entirely discarded, but it’s not the purpose of this text.
Will NATO resist the war in Ukraine’s impact and continue to exist as a significant military alliance ? I’d say it will.
Not the same could be said about the persistence of the image it long projected over the world as a monolithic political & military neo-liberal globalism enforcer block. The shiny, luxurious, cutting edge limo of yesterday will look more like a worn out, problem ridden, rusty ‘old lady’, mostly condemned to spend long garage hours where bored mechanics will tinker hopelessly with her former glory.
Maybe, from a military hardware point of view, she will receive a shiny new part, here and there. Not the original parts though, when German or French engineering made them, somehow I think the replacement parts will all be American-ish.
Until yesterday, when the pie still looked large and accessible enough for all the major players, discord was kept under the wraps and the powerplay, dominant-submissive relations in the boudoir. Today, the pie got sensibly smaller, the cute playful maids of yesterday became, in the master’s eyes, spoiled lazy servants who need to be put in their place.
And in their place they were put, without any unnecessary delicacy. The master is also very busy with other problems, in other places, no time to waste with household staff moods.
From haze to dusk
NATO deserved its ‘North Atlantic’ cohesive factor label in the beginning. A certain adherence, not always organic, to a liberal view of society (the post-war liberalism, not the later savage ‘neo’ variants) helped by two decades of growing prosperity, sometimes in countries left ravaged by the war, also helped by the Americanization of society, mostly willingly accepted, by the accelerated decline of true Christian faith in the Catholic/Protestant world, by deeper uniformization brought by an increasingly ideologized education system softly discouraging critical thought and by a mostly functional democratic political life. Or at least one perceived as relatively democratic by a population less cynical than today’s arrogantly clueless population, still close enough to the traditional family and community life, more culturally homogenous in their respective countries, with some viable roots left, enough to make them care a bit about what happens beyond a very narrow, selfish and culturally sterile pseudo-individualist interest.
NATO was diluted somewhat when it incorporated Greece and Turkey, but it could both control them and insulate their bad, extremely authoritarian examples (especially since they happened in the open – killings, torture, military coups and dictatorship – all those yucky things a good hypocrite detests in his comfy metropolis) under an ‘exotic’ presentation, a revived „Bon pour l’Orient” formula. Portugal was no angel either, but at least it borders the Atlantic, isn’t it !? And was quickly democratized when it proved the supposedly tough regime can’t handle those pesky peasants in the colonies. Spain was more useful outside anyway and Franco was bad PR, beyond spin in those primitive propaganda times. Italy was experimental ground, you always need one. All southerners, anyway, what can one expect ?
Enters EU (under a different name initially and less potent), the opiate concocted before the war by continental globalist thinkers, rediscovered and efficiently helped to life by an enthusiastic CIA as, probably, a ready available tool, good to keep the rather numerous players involved closer aligned and also more docile under an undisputed American leadership.
The Suez crisis proved NATO needs more internal discipline so unruly children won’t embarrass the headmaster in the future. One more reason to corral the minions as soon as possible. Brits got a free pass, because they’re Brits and preferred to self-harm themselves later.
EU delivered the necessary social compliance beyond any expectation. Did it so well that when the Eastern block cracked open and shattered, EU tool was enhanced, this time by largely expanded American-European globalist forces, insinuated first then firmly grabbing the power under their ‘neo’ common denominator all over the West. The globalists spew the Maastricht treaty in Europe and massively accelerated the push towards the West Collective and its globalist ‘new world order’ which Bush the Father proclaimed urbi et orbi.
EU and NATO then pursued a hasty policy of gobbling up the Eastern European countries.
US brought its instant Soros and other assorted and well established governmental sponsored NGOs brands and ‘rapid reaction’ ‘Company’ blessed media groups who quickly cleared the way and trained local ‘influencers’ to preach the new ‘integration’ religion.
EU dangled the prosperity carrot before the eyes of the dazzled Eastern European natives, happy to give away their riches for the glittering crumbs of nothingness. After the riches, their industries, their brains, their workforce, their lands, their ways of life, their souls. To embrace instead the apparently benign, initially, attitude of ‘tolerance’ and policies of encouraging ‘diversity’. Attitude then transformed into inquisitorial dogma, policies then transformed into mandatory behavior.
Meanwhile, the EU opiate administered to Western Europe managed to create long term dependence and inhibit thought processes. Certain addicts who woke up from stupor and tried to rub out the addiction, like the French, the Dutch or the Irish, were swiftly taught a lesson by the system’s enforcers. Political leaders who missed a step were removed like rotten apples. Judicial systems were thoroughly put under control after the law became an endless interpretable ambiguity. In US the poison spread a bit differently and, arguably, didn’t manage to stun the vast majority like in EU, but now it spreads alarmingly fast. Arguably, a pandemic disguised draconian repression had to be instituted to critically step up the process, but the corruption has permeated the society long before.
In this context, NATO, who followed in the footsteps of EU expansion, when it wasn’t preceding it, dangled in front of the natives the ‘never need to worry again’ security prospect. Pushing Germany, or at least allowing it, to mess Yugoslavia, with another kind of addict then stepping in only to escalate the tensions, bully and eventually bomb, in the name of the alliance, selected victims, while a chorus of rabid globalists, especially French and American based, howled in the background, taught observers it is better to run with the pack than get sliced by its claws.
After invented responsibilities and their derived ‘rules based’ ever shifting demands determined a series of ruinous adventures in various neighborhoods, NATO became synonym with a placeholder for the Collective West hive whenever globalist domination of the western neo-liberal kind encountered an obstacle.
The NATO’s shadow should have instilled a sacred fear. Until it didn’t. In a war it wanted and now is losing, along with the fear factor.
Dusk begins to settle in.